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By Josh Jeffrey Women's NCAA Forecast: A New Beginning
The saying goes in swimming that in an Olympic year, everything goes out the window. The first year of the new millennium will be no exception, as the NCAA has done away with the traditional short course yards format for this year's Division I championship meet, opting to swim short course meters instead. For the first time in the history of women's NCAAs, swimmers will not only have the opportunity to become event winners and collegiate record holders, but world record holders as well. Three teams are in serious contention for the NCAA team title, each boasting internationally-experienced veterans as well as hungry young newcomers. Last year's champions, the University of Georgia Lady Bulldogs, have been ranked first all season by the College Swimming Coaches Association of America (CSCAA). But a funny thing happened on the way to their title defense. A broken arm here, a broken foot there, an emergency ovarian cyst surgery, a sore shoulder -- well, you get the picture. With all its adversity, Georgia could slip to third. The safe bet for No. 1 would be Stanford. Not only has the Cardinal won the team championship six of the last eight years, but they've finished first or second in each of the last 11 years and 12 of the last 13. As the team with the most returning points, it's safe to say they'll be there. But looming in the shadows is a team that Swimming World thinks could go all the way. The talented Arizona Wildcats are ready to pounce. The fact that last year's fourth-place team only lost three points certainly can't hurt their chances. And what helps even more is the addition of two 1996 Olympic gold medalists, Beth Botsford and Amanda Beard. Already this season, they've set American records (short course meters) in their specialty events. Three top teams, one title. Here's how it should go down in Indy: 1. ARIZONA
This year, Coach Frank Busch has done it again, notching two Olympic gold medal-winning recruits. Backstroke sensation Beth Botsford and breaststroke WŸnderkind Amanda Beard are the latest acquisitions to a Wildcat team led by seniors Trina Jackson and Denali Knapp. Freestyle events from 50 to 200 are very deep for Arizona with Emily Mastin, Sarah Tolar and Lindsey Farella. All three scored individually last year while also swimming on Arizona's first-place 400 free relay and runner-up 800 relay. Backstroke is Arizona's trump card this year, as three Wildcats will likely final in both backstrokes. Senior Rachel Joseph and Knapp will score big in the 200 back, along with Botsford, who set an American record in that event (short course meters) at the Texas Invitational in December. Beard also set a short course American record in the 100 meter breaststroke at the same meet. She will threaten Kristy Kowal's title in the 100 this year, but her best event appears to be the 200 breast. Beard is the long course American record holder in the 200. Sophomore Emily Mastin will help Beard with points in the 100 breast and 200 IM, while sophomore Erin Vogt and Trina Jackson will take care of the 200 fly. Botsford will also likely swim the 100 fly at NCAAs. Former NCAA champ, Trina Jackson, will score big in the 400 free, and she'll have some help in the 1500 from Caroline Kilian and Katie Zimbone. The Wildcats should also get some diving points from Lindsay Berryman, while the medley relays will be strong with the additions of Beard and Botsford. For the second year in a row, Busch claimed the best recruiting class. This could be the year that the Wildcats will claw their way to the top. 2. STANFORD
The team is led by two of the most prolific swimmers at NCAAs, senior Catherine Fox and junior Misty Hyman. Fox, a member of the 1996 Olympic team, won the 50 free two straight years, and last year set an American record during the preliminaries of the 100 backstroke. She's a dangerous anchor for Stanford's free relays, which should be among the top three at every distance. Its 800 free relay could once again contend for the top spot. Misty Hyman, NCAA Swimmer of the Year two years ago and a former short course world record holder in the 100 meter fly, is also, perhaps, the biggest challenge to Keegan Walkley's defense of her 200 backstroke title. In the butterfly events, though, Misty'll have her hands full, fending off Nevada's Liu Limin. Last year, Hyman won the 100 and Liu the 200. Senior Gabrielle Rose should make a bigger impact this year, seeing action in the 100 breast, 200 IM and 100 free, while sophomore star Shelly Ripple will score points in the 100 back, 200 fly and 200 IM. Sophomore breaststroker Whitney Leatherwood must step up to the challenge this year if Stanford is to defend its medley relay titles, as Gabrielle Rose, the team's utility breaststroker, will likely be busy swimming the freestyle legs. Kim Powers and Erin Sones will lead the traditionally strong diving corps, and Jessica Foschi and Lauren Thies will score in the distance freestyles. The experience of Rose, Fox and Hyman will hold Stanford in good stead and keep the Cardinal close in pursuit of their seventh title in nine years. 3. GEORGIA
But the problem has been injuries. Since December, Ashley Roby broke her foot, Jamie Skinner broke her arm, Becky Wilson has shoulder problems, Keegan Walkley had emergency surgery for an ovarian cyst and diver Tammy Crystal, fifth in the 10-meter and 11th in the 3-meter last year, lost valuable practice time due to injury. If they recover, the Dawgs will still be in the thick of things to repeat as national champs. But the question marks loom too large to rank the Bulldogs as this year's favorite. Still, Georgia's sprint freestyles have been bolstered with the additions of transfer Kim Black and freshman sensation Maritza Correia. Sophomore Stefanie Williams has finally hit her stride, and along with junior Courtney Shealy, should help Georgia's freestyle relays. Shealy also looks to be a contender for the 50 and 100 titles. NCAA 200 back champion Keegan Walkley (assuming full recovery) and 100 back finalist Christine Keller, along with senior transfer Jennifer Mihalik, will hold the fort for Georgia's backstroke corps. Walkley also finished second in last year's 400 IM. Breaststroke remains in capable hands, especially with senior Kristy Kowal, the American record holder, who has been nearly unstoppable the past three years. She'll also be the favorite to win the 200 IM. Junior Jamie Skinner and sophomore Ashley Roby each finaled in both breaststroke events last year, and they hope to do the same if their broken bones heal on schedule. Surprisingly, Georgia's strongest suit this year may be distance freestyle. Ace rookie Maritza Correia, along with Kim Black and freshman Becky Wilson (sore shoulder), should contend in the 400 meter freestyle, while Wilson, freshman Melissa Bartlett and Nicole Schrader keep the momentum going in the 1500. Georgia still has the horses -- er, Dawgs -- to win its second title in a row, but how healthy will it be come March in Indianapolis? 4. CALIFORNIA
Senior Waen Minpraphal of Thailand will see top-8 action in the 400 IM and 200 fly, while freshman speed demon Staciana Stitts will put big points on the board for Cal in the 100 and 200 breaststrokes. Elli Overton returns for her senior campaign and hopes to repeat her 1998 season when she finished second in the 200 IM and 200 fly. Senior Anya Kolbisen will swim both the 100 and 200 freestyles, while aiding Cal's speedy 200 and 400 freestyle relays to top-three finishes. Yeo, Kolbisen, Cope and Stitts will team up for the medley relays, which should also fare well, especially in the 200. 5. USC
Freshman Michala Kwasny has also been very swift in the IMs, as well as the 200 fly, and she is well-versed at short course meters. Watch for her to challenge for top three in those events. Sophomore breaststroke specialist Kristin MacGregor will factor heavily in the 100 breast, more so than the 200, and has also been coming on strong lately in the 200 IM, making that a deep event for the Trojans. Their medley relays will be strong, with senior Paige Francis (back), MacGregor (breast) and Kwasny (fly). However, they'll sorely be missing the speed of Pan-Am 100 fly record holder, Karen Campbell. For this reason, the Trojan freestyle relays -- with the exception of the 800 -- will be hurting. USC is traditionally a distance team, granted, and they have some excellent stroke specialists, but a big part of the equation for success at NCAAs is "sprinters = points." That part of the equation is missing for USC this year. 6. AUBURN
Polar opposites to USC, Auburn is primarily a sprint team. This year will be no exception, as the team added 50 sprinter Cortnee Adams and the top-ranked high schooler in the 100 free, Cassidy Maxwell, both of whom will contribute immediately. Freestylers Jennifer Woolf and Rada Owen should also score points from the 100 up to the 400. Senior fly expert and former NCAA champion Mimi Bowen is joined by her younger sister, Maggie, to solidify the butterfly events and to ring up big points in the 400 IM. Senior 200 breaststroke specialists Cathy Sursi and Annemieke McReynolds convert well to short course meters and will keep the Tigers in the thick of things. Freshman Mabry Fiddler and junior Brook Monroe will also contribute in breaststroke. With backstroke speedster Katie Ryan at the helm, the Auburn 200 medley relay will be deadly, as will its 400. The additions of Maxwell and Adams will help its chances greatly in the freestyle relays, particularly the 200 and 400. 7. MICHIGAN
Shakespeare is a potential scoring threat in just about anything, but most of all in the 100 and 200 free plus the 200 IM. Junior Jennifer Crisman will help with points in backstroke, while sophomore Lindsay Carlberg should be expected to contribute as well. Junior Missy Sugar should contend this year in freestyle and will help keep Michigan among the top five teams in the freestyle relays. With Eberwein lost to graduation, Shakespeare will most likely have to move from breaststroke to freestyle on the medley relays, so freshman Traci Valasco will have to answer the call for breaststroke. 8. VIRGINIA
Freshmen distance/IM specialists Cara Lane and Mirjana Bosevska will immediately impact the 400 and 1500 freestyles as well as the 400 IM. This double-punch will add big points to the Cavalier cause, and will also help the 800 free relay improve on its 13th-place finish. Sophomore breaststroker Kate Slonaker will also contribute, but the loss of last year's freshman find, Canadian Danica Wizniuk, will hurt the medley relay chances. However, with McCubbins and Cronk, the 200 and 400 freestyle relays should be able to improve. 9. NORTHWESTERN
In backstroke, junior Tashy Bohm and freshman Susie Sample will take care of business, while breaststroke will be handled expertly by the Cats' top overall swimmer of last year, NCAA top-three finisher Amy Balcerzak. Medley duties will mainly rest on the shoulders of Balcerzak, but this year, sophomore Merritt Adams hopes to give her some assistance. Butterfly is Northwestern's Achilles heel. Allyson Bowman will need to step up to fill the gap, and Adams will have to swim to her potential, especially in the 200. Medley relays should be strong with Diezi taking backstroke, Balcerzak on breast and Courtney Allen anchoring on free. 10. SMU
Seniors Katherine Inskeep and Suzanne Black pace the team, along with juniors Katina Maistrellis and Alison Wimer, who will help keep the 200 and 400 free relays in check. Black, along with distance recruits McCall Dorr, and the Swedish Wanberg sisters, Lotta and Lisa, should score points in the 200, 400 and 1500. The addition of the Wanbergs also helps SMU's 800 free relay. Freshmen Sarah Chandler and Julia Pomeroy will help SMU's breaststroke department, while Shea Fitzgerald, another freshman, will be needed to step up in backstroke. SMU also added freshman Lauren Stinnett in the second semester. She'll be able to contribute immediately in the 200 back, 200 fly and 400 IM. Senior Kristin Link will handle the diving responsibilities in the absence of Jenny Lingamfelter, last year's top NCAA diver. How well SMU will do in the post-Martina Moravcova era will depend largely on its freshmen. BUBBLING UNDER
And don't count out Florida. Though losing the bulk of its scorers last year to graduation, a fast-improving Lady Gators team could rise to higher ground. Florida has some good freshmen and transfers, especially distance freestyler Jamie Johnson from USC. However, sophomore Nicole Duggan is the school's only returning point scorer. SW CSCAA LAST POINTS POINTS SCHOOL POLL POLL YEAR POINTS RETURNING LOST Arizona 1 2 4 332 329 3 Stanford 2 3 2 441 375.5 65.5 Georgia 3 1 1 504.5 345.5 159 California 4 5 5 315 231 84 USC 5 4 6 245 85 160 Auburn 6 6 11 138 107.5 30.5 Michigan 7 10 7 163 134.5 28.5 Virginia 8 8 10 140 104 36 Northwestern 9 11 9 145 135 10 SMU 10 9 3 370.5 60 310.5 On the Bubble (alphabetically): Florida 7 8 147 41 106 Minnesota 13 24t 34 33.5 0.5 Nebraska 17t 12 133 71.5 61.5 Nevada 20 14 88 78 10 Texas 12 13 126 51.5 74.5 UCLA 14t 16 83 80 3 Wisconsin 14t 15 85 81.5 3.5 |
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